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JWE Volume 15 | 2020 | No. 3

Journal of Wine Economics Volume 15 | 2020 | No. 3

Introduction to the Issue

Karl Storchmann
Pages: 261-262
Full Text PDF
Introduction

This issue of the Journal of Wine Economics opens with “Explaining World Wine Exports in the First Wave of Globalization, 1848–1938” (Ayuda, Ferrer-Pérez, and Pinilla, 2020). María-Isabel Ayuda, Hugo Ferrer-Pérez, and Vicente Pinilla analyze the determinants of world wine exports during the century preceding WWII. Employing an extended gravity model, the authors find that much of the trade volume is determined by external shocks (e.g., Russian Revolution, WWI, Prohibition) and by (lagged) grape yields. As expected, they find a positive effect of exporting countries’ yields and a negative effect of importing countries’ yields. The results also suggest the existence of a significant home bias. In addition, “as was the case with trade as a whole, the fall in transaction costs favored exports, at least those of lower-priced and lower-quality wine. However, the liberalization of trade had a lesser impact on wine than on other products” (p. 263). In the following paper, entitled “Pricing Models for German Wine: Hedonic Regression vs. Machine Learning,” Britta Niklas and Wolfram Rinke present various hedonic and machine learning models in order to explain retail prices of German Riesling wine (Niklas and Rinke, 2020). The study suggests that machine learning exhibits slightly greater explanatory power than the hedonic approach and allows for a more detailed interpretation of the results. The machine learning model is then applied to other varieties such as Silvaner, Pinot Blanc, and Pinot Noir. The analysis suggests that the influence of an independent variable on the wine price cannot be estimated by a single coefficient, since the marginal effects vary among quality categories, as well as by price points and critical scores. Regarding temperature variables, the authors find that “during the harvest season, especially higher minimum and maximum temperatures lead to a negative price effect for wines of all grape varieties and quality categories, so that earlier harvest is recommended for all grape varieties in cases of warmer harvest seasons, such as was the case in 2018” (p. 306) In “An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Sub-Divisions of American Viticultural Areas on Wine Prices: A Hedonic Study of Napa Valley,” Grant Keating analyzes the economic value of sub-AVAs within the Napa Valley appellation (Keating, 2020). Drawing on a dataset of 5,017 Napa Valley wines reviewed by The Connoisseurs’ Guide to California Wine between 2004 and 2013, he runs various hedonic pricing models. The reduced form and rating-based models suggest that the majority of the sub-AVA effects stem from pure sub-AVA influences as opposed to indirect effects through critics’ ratings. That is, consumers value sub-AVA wines independently of critical scores. “These results indicate that Sub- AVAs deliver a more substantial price effect than previous literature has suggested” (p. 312) The last paper in this issue, entitled “A Model of Global Beverage Markets,” is by Glyn Wittwer and Kym Anderson. The article describes a new general equilibrium model of the world’s markets for alcoholic beverages, differentiated by wine, beer, and spirits; the model distinguishes 44 countries and 7 residual regions. Employing their model, the authors report results from various projections to 2025 under different scenarios. Two alternative scenarios are explored and compared to the business-as-usual benchmark. One scenario simulates the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU); the other simulates the effects of the recent imposition of additional 25% tariffs on selected beverages imported by the United States from several EU member countries. Future model applications may include simulations of COVID effects on wine consumption and trade.

Karl Storchmann
New York University

Explaining World Wine Exports in the First Wave of Globalization, 1848–1938

María-Isabel Ayuda, Hugo Ferrer-Pérez & Vicente Pinilla
Pages: 263-283
Full Text PDF
Abstract

The objective of this article is to analyze the determinants of world wine exports in the first globalization, taking into account the principal exporting countries and using an extended version of the gravity model. The article distinguishes between ordinary- and high-quality wines. Our econometric results show that wine exports were not affected by the increase in the size of the markets of consuming countries, since in most of them wine was an alcoholic beverage consumed by a very small minority of the population. The harvests of the producing countries, particularly in preceding years, significantly and positively affected their exports. Conversely, the harvests of importers hurt exports as there was a home bias in consumption due to cultural, price, or tariff protection reasons. In the interwar period, the wine trade was severely affected by a series of shocks such as WWI, the Soviet revolution, the Prohibition, and the 1930s depression. As was the case with trade as a whole, the fall in trans- action costs, favored exports, at least those of lower-priced and lower-quality wine. However, the liberalization of trade had a lesser impact on wine than on other products.

Pricing Models for German Wine: Hedonic Regression vs. Machine Learning

Britta Niklas & Wolfram Rinke
Pages: 284-311
Abstract

This article examines whether there are different hedonic price models for different German wines by grape variety, and identifies influential factors that focus on weather variables and direct and indirect quality measures for wine prices. A log linear regression model is first applied only for Riesling, and then machine learning is used to find hedonic price models for Riesling, Silvaner, Pinot Blanc, and Pinot Noir. Machine learning exhibits slightly greater explanatory power, suggests adding additional variables, and allows for a more detailed interpretation of results. Gault&Millau points are shown to have a significant positive impact on German wine prices. The log linear approach suggests a huge effect of different quality categories on the wine prices for Riesling with the highest price premiums for Auslese and “Beerenauslese/Trockenbeerenauslese/Eiswein (Batbaice),” while the machine learning model shows, that additionally the alcohol level has a positive effect on wines in the quality categories “QbA,” “Kabinett,” and “Spätlese,” and a mostly negative one in the categories “Auslese” and “Batbaice.” Weather variables exert different affects per grape variety, but all grape varieties have problems coping with rising maximum temperatures in the winter and with rising minimum and maximum temperatures in the harvest season.

An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Sub-Divisions of American Viticultural Areas on Wine Prices: A Hedonic Study of Napa Valley

Grant Bartlett Keating
Pages: 312-329
Abstract

American Viticultural Areas (AVAs) are descriptors of where wine grapes are grown that are designed to capture qualities unique to the wine and to influence its price. Sub-AVAs are sub- divisions of well-known AVAs designed to have the same effect. In this paper, I study the impact of the Napa Valley Sub-AVA system on the pricing and rating of Napa Valley wines. The analysis utilizes a primary hedonic pricing model to isolate both the individual Sub-AVA’s price effect and the system’s cumulative price effect. This study uses a unique dataset of 5,017 Napa Valley wines reviewed by the Connoisseurs’ Guide to California Wine over the 10-year period from 2004–2013. Estimated price effects persist even after controlling for rating differences, implying that consumers value the wines of sub-AVA’s independently of critics’ ratings. These results indicate that Sub-AVAs deliver a more substantial price effect than previous literature has suggested.

A Model of Global Beverage Markets

Glyn Wittwer & Kym Anderson
Pages: 330-354
Abstract

This article describes a new empirical model of the world’s markets for alcoholic beverages and, to illustrate its usefulness, reports results from projections of those markets from 2016– 2018 to 2025 under various scenarios. It not only revises and updates a model of the world’s wine markets (Wittwer, Berger, and Anderson, 2003), but also adds beer and spirits so as to capture the substitutability of those beverages among consumers. The model has some of the features of an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model, with inter- national trade linking the markets of its 44 countries and seven residual regions. It is used to simulate prospects for these markets by 2025 (business-as-usual), which points to Asia’s rise. Then two alternative scenarios to 2025 are explored: one simulates the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU); the other simulates the effects of the recent imposition of additional 25% tariffs on selected beverages imported by the United States from several EU member countries. Future applications of the model are discussed in the concluding section.

Book & Film Reviews

Burgundy Vintages: A History from 1845

By: Allen D. Meadows & Douglas E. Barzelay
Reviewer: Peter Hellman
Pages: 355-359
Full Text PDF
Book Review

Even Burgundy wine enthusiasts, when confronted with a heavy tome called “Burgundy Vintages: A History from 1845,” may take a deep breath. The book’s authors, former banker Allen Meadows and retired lawyer Douglas Barzelay, both not merely enthusiasts but obsessives, have disgorged thousands of personal tasting notes for almost every one of those 175 vintages. The earliest, an 1845 Clos de Vougeot, was on the vine in the year that Texas entered the Union as a slave state. Most of the entries carry detailed impressions from both authors, often based on tastings of multiple bottles of the same wine. Meadows (a.k.a. Burghound, publisher of an eponymous wine-rating periodical) tends to be the tougher grader. As an example, Barzelay highly praises Domaine Ponsot’s 1961 Clos de la Roche as a “brilliant wine, the essence of Clos de la Roche” (p. 255). He awards it 98 points on the 100-point scale. Meadows will have none of it: “I confess to being disappointed, as I had expected great things, particularly given how taken Doug is with this wine. Perhaps one day” (p. 255). His score: 88. That divergence of opinion over the same wine (if not the same bottle), even when tasters are ultra-experienced and respectful of each other, goes to the heart of what keeps us interested in wine: It is a liquid that whispers its intimacies to each of us differently. It would seem to be a no-brainer that even the best bottles of Burgundy’s pinot noir, typically lighter in color and tannin than the Medoc’s best cabernet sauvignon, are doomed to lose out on longevity. That notion is put to rest in these tasting notes. “I couldn’t get over just how spectacular the mouthfeel and unreal complexity were and even at almost 160 years of age, this is cruising along like it will live forever,” enthuses Meadows over Bouchard Pere & Fils’ 1958—oops, I meant to type 1858 —Chambolle Musigny (p. 33). Here, the authors did find common ground; Barzelay judged the same wine to be “both powerful and elegant, with great harmony and still a lot of power on the finish” (p. 33). Astonishingly, the authors discover that it is not only 19th century red burgundy that can dally with immortality. So can white burgundy. The scent of the 1865 Bouchard Pere & Fils Meursault Charmes, Barzelay found, “was spicy, with orange mousse, toast, gingerbread and mineral notes, and it kept expanding in the glass” (p. 45). In the mouth, this white awed Meadows with its “terrific intensity and fantastic length” (p. 45). What an irony that modern white burgundies from esteemed producers have too frequently been beset by dreaded “premox” (premature oxidation) whose cause has yet to be nailed down. Even bottles that have never left their birth site are not spared. At the 300th anniversary dinner of renowned Domaine Leflaive, Meadows reports that three bottles of 1995 Bâtard-Montrachet were opened and “unfortunately, all were premoxed” (p. 437). Tasting notes for long-ago vintages in Burgundy are, even for limitless wine budgets, for daydreaming only. To take an over-the-moon example, you may wish you could source a bottle of 1945 Romanée-Conti, but you will wish in vain. That first post-war vintage of France’s most venerated wine was also the last from its pre-phylloxera vineyard. The time had come for the exhausted vines to be grubbed up prior to replanting. But those old vines produced the single rarest and greatest 20th century burgundy. “The ’45 is a complete wine, capable of speaking to the soul, great but not flashy, sexy but not vulgar, regal but not austere, a living monu- ment to the past yet serving as a model for future…the greatest wine I have ever drunk,” writes Meadows. Barzelay: “It would be hopeless to catalog [its] kaleido- scope of flavors; more important was the shape of the wine, its density, its perfect harmony. A long, brilliant spherical finish kept on going: just as it seemed to end, it restarted” (p. 186). That 1945 was the centerpiece of a 70-vintage Romanée-Conti tasting held at New York restaurant Per Se in 2007. Barzelay had spent more than a decade track- ing down all the bottles. But the 1945 eluded him. Into the breach came wine world rock star Rudy Kurniawan, who would later be convicted of being a master wine counterfeiter. Among his favorite wines to fake was this one. Yet both authors con- cluded, based on the glory of what they had tasted at Per Se, that somehow, some- where, Kurniawan had located a single authentic example of this rarest of rarities. (Elsewhere, the authors do report tasting a scattering of wines in which they detect the hand of the counterfeiter at work.) Tasting notes for vintages the authors judge to be superb, such as 1867, 1910, 1928, 1945, and 1971, make for happy reading. This being Burgundy, with its iffy climate (or so it once was), these knockout vintages are relatively few. What about vintages that are mediocre? Is there pleasure or utility in learning, for example, about “incessantly rainy and all but sunless” 1960, a vintage whose wines are pro- nounced to be “fully in decline?” (p. 251) Still, the authors pull up the small anecdote that makes us feel the misery, as when winemaker Henri Boillot remembers trying to rescue his inundated Volnay vines in 1965, a vintage even wetter than 1960 and “there was so much water that it came up over the top of my boots” (p. 270). About the limitation of massed tasting notes: It is inevitable that descriptors become repetitious—in particular, “sous-bois,” a term that is more a favorite of Meadows than Barzelay. Both authors are judicious in composing their notes—perhaps too much so. I found myself longing for a bit of flash and sass, as one finds in the two volumes of tasting notes by Michael Broadbent, founder of Christie’s post-war wine department. Broadbent , for example, slaps down a Nuits-St-Georges as smelling like an “institutional kitchen (unclean)” (The Great Vintage Wine Book, 1980, p. 201) And, after giving an initial pass to an old Vosne Romanée Malconsorts on first tasting, he dismisses it two years later, having decided that he had “caught it ascending on the third day, for it was [now] well and truly dead” (The Great Vintage Wine Book, p. 200) And there are the lively notes of Acker Merrall & Condit auctioneer John Kapon, online and in his book “The Compendium.” If there’s a way to combine wine and funky sexual allusion, Kapon will find it. Tasting notes bulk up “Burgundy Vintages,” but a bonus woven into these nearly 600 pages is a rich, occasionally quirky, anecdotal history of Burgundy that takes us deep into the texture of this unique region. The authors have dug up from who knows what dusty archive, for example, a protest letter to the mayor of Beaune penned by Maurice Drouhin, then head of his distinguished family wine house, on the eve of the 1936 harvest. In this instance, Drouhin was wearing his cap as head of the local hunting society. His complaint was that the “bureaucrats of the Department of the Côte d’Or” had decreed the end of the autumn partridge hunt to be November 1. That date was just one day after Beaune’s mayor had proposed opening the same hunt—“clearly not enough time to decimate the entire partridge population, even if a few stray vignerons got in the way” as the authors dryly put it (p. 163). Thanks to Drouhin’s influence, the hunt was reset to open five days earlier, on October 25th. More obscure facts and odd anecdotes abound. We learn, for example, that wartime bottles had a blue tint due to the unavailability of chromium, which gives the glass its familiar green tint. And if not for a dearth of copper sulfate to stave off vineyard maladies in those years, Romanée-Conti’s ancient vines might have been continued on life support a while longer. It turns out that there was one benefit from the occupation: the inven- tion of the raised, inverted U-shaped tractor called an enjambeur, which could nav- igate narrow vineyard rows. The authors give credit for this adaptation from standard tractors to a mechanic and his partner who “fabricated elements taken from a destroyed motorized German regiment near Auxey-Duresses in 1944” (p. 174).

Especially rewarding, co-existing with this volume’s multitudinous tasting notes, is a panoramic survey of the long struggle over the creation of appellation controlée laws, in which the “bad guys” are not always whom you would expect. On one side were the powerful negociants; on the other, the vignerons, or growers. For a very long time, their commercial arrangement made sense: the growers, most of them small, sold their latest vintage to the negociants. The negociants then blended the wines to create taste profiles familiar to their customers, and never mind the precise origin of the grapes. Chambertin was not expected to taste like Volnay, and the negociants made sure that it did not. If, in a dilute vintage year, the Chambertin needed to be darkened up with, say an infusion of ripe Midi grapes, so be it. From the other side, beginning in the early 1930s, a few well-off growers began to assert their right to bottle their own wines and put their names, as well as true appel- lations, on the label. Leading the charge were Marquis d’Angerville in Volnay, Henri Gouges in Nuits-St.-Georges, and Charles Rousseau in Gevrey-Chambertin. Looking back now, appellation control laws, guaranteeing the origin of each bottle, would seem to be a no-brainer. But, as the authors explain, it was not neces- sarily so. Suppose a negociant was accustomed to bottling a wine labeled as famed Pommard but did not hesitate to plump it up with grapes purchased from growers in nearby, unfamous, Auxey-Duresses. Under the new laws, those growers would be abandoned—or at least, no longer be paid for contributing to Pommard. Such minor league growing areas were known as villages disinheritees. They could ill afford to lose their negociant income. The battle over strict appellation controlee legislation, finally won in the mid- 1930s, was carried out even as Burgundians had next to no market for their wines. Charles Rousseau, the late luminary of Gevrey Chambertin, who would live to see his wines sell for thousands of dollars per bottle, told Meadows that in the 1950s he embarked on a trip to London where he “tried hard to sell his wines but was forced to return to Gevrey without having sold even one bottle!” (p. 115) Aubert de Villaine, co-proprietor of Domaine de la Romanée-Conti, once described Burgundy as a place “bound up with centuries of human input into and around our vineyards. It has led to a winegrowing landscape that’s been divided into parcels and hierarchies almost to excess.” And the winemakers themselves can be neurotic, even nutty, in pursuit of their beliefs. I once listened to a rant by a Burgundian winemaker, as he stood over a barrel of wine in his cellar, about how other winemakers stirred the lees in the wrong way. He was as combative about lees stirring technique as we Americans currently are about politics. That Burgundian obsession with micro-dividing their vineyard landscape and cellar practices would be stillborn without people who are equally obsessive on the consumer side. Happily, there is no lack of Burgundy true believers, even if they must pay painfully for the most sought-after labels. Meadows and Barzelay have gone a step further. They have transformed their own obsession with Burgundian wine—its history and culture, its wisdom and quirks, into this marvelous book— truly a work of love and erudition.

Peter Hellman
New York, NY
peter.hellman425@gmail.com
doi:10.1017/jwe.2020.21

The Wines of Georgia

By: Lisa Granik
Reviewer: Kym Anderson
Pages: 359-361
Full Text PDF
Book Review

Any wine lover with even the slightest interest in wines from the country of Georgia would be familiar with such words as “cradle of wine,” “8000 vintages,” “qvevri,” and “supra.” This tiny country—the size of Tasmania and only slightly larger than West Virginia—arguably has the longest history of winemaking from grapes, and is one of the most grapewine-focused countries in the world. It shares with Portugal the honor of having the world’s largest share of national crop area under vines (almost 10%) but has a heritage of producing wine for four times as many cen- turies as Western Europe. It shares with Croatia the highest unit value among east European countries and former Soviet republics for its wine exports. Moreover, it claims to have more than 400 (possibly 500) native Vitis Vinifera winegrape varieties (Ketskhoveli, Ramishvili, and Tabidze, 2012), thus exceeding even Italy (D’Agata, 2014)—and many of those grape varieties are not grown elsewhere. So even though Georgia produces barely 0.5% of the world’s wine production, it is certainly worthy of being the subject of a volume in the Infinite Ideas Classic Wine Library. The author of this book, Lisa Granik, is highly qualified. She became a Master of Wine in 2006, having previously earned a BS and MS in Foreign Service from Georgetown University, a J.D. from Georgetown, and an LLM and JSD from Yale Law School. She first visited the Soviet Union as a law professor on a Fulbright Scholarship (1990–1991), but a side visit to Georgia piqued her interest in the newly independent country and in wine. Currently, she serves on the governing council of the Institute of Masters of Wine, and the advisory board of the Women in Wine Leadership Symposium, and was a board member of the Institute of Masters of Wine (North America) from 2007 to 2018. During 2013–2015 she was a professor of wine at the New York Institute of Technology, but is now a private consultant and wine writer and continues to frequently visit Georgia. The book begins by briefly exploring the extremely long history of the country and its wine industry, its fascinatingly complex geology, and its traditional winemaking methods. Many archaeologists dream of working in the region, the most famous westerner being the University of Pennsylvania Museum’s Patrick McGovern (2003, 2009; McGovern et al., 2017). In the most-recent two centuries, the country’s wine industry, like most other things in Georgia, has been closely tied to develop- ments in Russia, following Georgia’s official annexation into the Russian Empire in 1801. That means it flourished in much of the 19th century’s globalization era, shrunk as phylloxera belatedly took hold leading up to the Russian Revolution, and then became “industrialized” under Stalin’s collectivization mania aimed at maximizing the volume of production when processing was centralized though a state monopoly (Samtrest). By 1980 around 150,000 hectares were under vine. But in 1985, when Gorbachev abruptly introduced his anti-alcohol policies, huge areas of vineyards were uprooted. The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 was followed by the collapse of the cooperative system and the civil war, causing further abandon- ment of vineyards—down to perhaps 40,000 hectares—such that less than one- eighth of the country’s wine was available for export in the 1990s. In the new millen- nium production and exports began to grow, and the share of production exported peaked at almost 50% by 2005 before Russia imposed a ban on imports from Georgia. This embargo triggered an export diversification drive, but the area under vines has recovered only to the extent of about 50,000 hectares so far. Traditional winemaking involved maturation in buried clay qvevri (large amphora) that averaged around 1,000 liters but ranged from 100 to 3,500 liters. Grapes and stems are fermented and allowed to mature in these vessels for more than six months, for white as well as red varieties. The “whites” thus become amber in color and more tannic than most other white wines—fitting in perfectly with the current consumer infatuation with “orange” and “natural” wines. Even though today only a small fraction of Georgia’s commercial wine is produced in qvevri, it con- tinues to provide an intriguing point of difference for marketing the country’s product. The book explains in some detail Georgia’s highly integrated wine and food culture. The word “supra” cannot be easily translated into English because it involves far more than just a feast. Wine is integral, as are myriad heart-felt speeches and toasts led by a “tamada” (toastmaster), plus singing and maybe dancing. Few visi- tors to Georgia will forget their first supra. Most of the rest of the book examines the country’s winegrape varieties and regions of production. On varieties, Granik discusses not just those grown currently but also many unique varieties that are beginning to be or could be resurrected by producers. Rkatsiteli and Saperavi are Georgia’s best-known white variety and red variety, respectively. However, the widely varying climate and soils across this tiny country ensure many regions also specialize in one or more other varieties that, over the centuries, have proven their worth in their locale. This diverse genetic stock will be of increasing interest to those seeking alternatives to the world’s most popular varieties, whether just to be different or in response to climate change. Turning to the key winegrape regions, two-thirds of the country’s wine is produced in the Kakheti region east of the capital (Tbilisi) toward the border with Azerbaijan. That is also the region with the most-developed wine tourism infrastructure, and is only about an hour’s drive from the capital. Yet just as many pages of the book are devoted to the regions of western Georgia. This detailed coverage of regions (half the book’s pages), and of winegrape varieties, will no doubt interest those wanting to specialize in working with Georgia’s wine industry, but is far more than the average tourist or wine economist is likely to want. The final chapter briefly summarizes where Georgia currently fits in the wine world and how it might evolve in the future. The industry has moved on somewhat from what was described nearly a decade ago in Anderson (2013), but it is still heavily dependent on export sales to Russia and other formerly planned economies (now including China). Breaking into the United States, the United Kingdom, and western European wine markets is its current challenge—and its most obvious opportunity for returning to its former size. As it does so, more and more consumers in the West who are interested in new wine experiences (wine styles, winegrape varieties, wine tourism) will be able to discover for themselves this unique place and its wine culture.

Kym Anderson
University of Adelaide and Australian National University
kym.anderson@adelaide.edu.au
doi:10.1017/jwe.2020.22

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