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Home
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JWE-Articles
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Journal of Wine Economics Volume 9 | 2014 | No. 2
»
Quantifying Randomness Versus Consensus in Wine Quality Ratings

Quantifying Randomness Versus Consensus in Wine Quality Ratings

Jing Cao
JEL Clasification: C10, C13, C15
Pages: 202-213
Abstract

There has been ongoing interest in studying wine judges’ performance in evaluating wines. Most of the studies have reached a similar conclusion: a significant lack of consensus exists in wine quality ratings. However, a few studies, to the author’s knowledge, have provided direct quantification of how much consensus (as opposed to randomness) exists in wine ratings. In this paper, a permutation-based mixed model is proposed to quantify randomness versus consensus in wine ratings. Specifically, wine ratings under the condition of randomness are generated with a permutation method, and wine ratings under the condition of consensus can be produced by sorting the ratings for each judge. Then the observed wine ratings are modeled as a mixture of ratings under randomness and ratings under consensus. This study shows that the model can provide excellent model fit, which indicates that wine ratings, indeed, consist of a mixture of randomness and consensus. A direct measure is easily computed to quantify randomness versus consensus in wine ratings. The method is demonstrated with data analysis from a major wine competition and a simulation study.

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